Hurricanes

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Comment by Kevin Shaw on August 7, 2010 at 7:04pm

"US government expects above-normal activity heading into peak of Atlantic hurricane season" (Source: Associated Press, 8/5/10)

PENSACOLA, Fla. — Record high ocean temperatures and the development of a climate phenomenon known as La Nina will keep the Atlantic hurricane season on track to be the busiest since 2005, government forecasters said Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly lowered the outlook it released in May, but an above-normal season was still expected, said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Washington.

The updated forecast calls for 14 to 20 named tropical storms, down from a range of 14 to 23. The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the peak period for hurricanes runs from August through October.

Eight to 12 storms could become hurricanes, and four to six of those hurricanes could become major storms, blowing winds of 111 mph or more, forecasters said.

"August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared," NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement.

Historically during active storm seasons, multiple hurricane strikes are much more likely for both the Gulf Coast and the East Coast in the U.S.

The Caribbean also sees a sharp increase in storm activity during such seasons, which is bad news for Haiti, where approximately 1.6 million people continue to live under tarps and tents nearly seven months after a catastrophic earthquake wrecked its capital.

Three named storms have developed since this hurricane season began. Hurricane Alex made landfall June 30 in northern Mexico. Tropical Storm Bonnie forced crews drilling a relief well in the Gulf of Mexico to evacuate last month but petered out.

Tropical Storm Colin regenerated Thursday with 45 mph winds over the open Atlantic, said forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. A tropical storm warning was issued for Bermuda.

The May outlook — which called for eight to 14 hurricanes, with possibly three to seven major hurricanes — reflected the possibility of even more storms forming in June and July than actually did, Bell said.

Bell said the update is based on conditions indicating a high-activity era that began in 1995 continues.

"The atmospheric and oceanic conditions now in place are very conducive to hurricane formation, as we had predicted in May," he said.

A Pacific Ocean phenomenon called La Nina developed in July, reducing wind shear in the Atlantic and making it easier for storms to take shape.

Ocean temperatures are exceptionally high, and the warmest since 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita ripped into the same part of the Gulf Coast now coping with one of the world's worst oil spills.

Historically, three named tropical storms will spin into the Gulf of Mexico between August and November during above-normal seasons, Bell said. Any impact on the oil remaining in the Gulf from an April 20 rig explosion off Louisiana would depend on a storm's strength and path across the water.

Tropical storms are named when sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. They become hurricanes when sustained winds reach 74 mph. Major hurricanes blow at 111 mph or more. The strongest hurricanes are labeled Category 5, with winds greater than 155 mph.

Three hurricanes developed out of nine tropical storms in 2009. None of the hurricanes made landfall in the United States. Hurricane Ida hit Nicaragua as a Category 1 storm in November.

Colorado State University researchers said Wednesday they also expected this year's season to be more active than average with 10 hurricanes, five of them major.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Comment by Nathan Parker on August 6, 2010 at 4:45pm

Tropical Storm Colin's brewing again! Click here for an article on our site about it, and checkout the map images below:

Comment by Nathan Parker on August 4, 2010 at 8:45pm

Colin's a Tropical Storm, but it doesn't look too impressive right now...

Comment by Nathan Parker on June 28, 2010 at 4:21pm

More updates on Tropical Storm Alex from KARK4, TWC, and WeatherBug.

Comment by Nathan Parker on June 27, 2010 at 7:46pm

More updates on Tropical Storm Alex from KARK4's Greg Dee. This thing could go a number of ways!

Comment by Nathan Parker on June 26, 2010 at 11:41pm

More updates on the storm path from KARK4 and WeatherBug! Remember to checkout Bill Devo's blog everyday for the latest information on the tropics!

Comment by Nathan Parker on June 26, 2010 at 8:27pm

Here's a satellite map, warnings map, and wind projection map from TWC:

Comment by Mike on June 25, 2010 at 11:59pm

I dont think this will be much of a news maker...it will be a good chance to get some radar data....a nice dry run for the rest of the season.

Comment by Mike on June 25, 2010 at 11:55pm

Im going to go out on a limb here and call a landfall for northern Mexico through southern Texas. According to the latest forecast models.

Comment by KMel_Tortelli on June 25, 2010 at 12:31pm

Hurricane Darby becomes a Category 3 storm

1 hr 45 mins ago

MIAMI – Hurricane Darby has reached Category 3 strength, making it the second major hurricane of the eastern Pacific season.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami says Darby's maximum sustained winds Friday are near 115 mph (185 kph).
The hurricane is located about 245 miles (395 kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. It's heading west-northwest near 7 mph (11 kph).
Meanwhile, the powerful Hurricane Celia has weakened to a Category 4 storm farther out in the Pacific. Celia's maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 150 mph (240 kph). The hurricane center says Celia is approaching cooler waters and is expected to continue weakening.
Neither hurricane poses an immediate threat to land.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
MIAMI (AP) — Hurricane Darby has strengthened to a Category 2 storm in the Pacific off Mexico's coast.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami says Darby's maximum sustained winds early Friday are near 105 mph (165 kph) and the storm could become a major hurricane later in the day.
The hurricane is located about 250 miles (400 kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. It's heading west-northwest near 7 mph (11 kph).
Meanwhile, the powerful Hurricane Celia continues churning farther out in the Pacific. The Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 kph). But the hurricane center says Celia is approaching cooler waters and is expected to weaken over the next two days.
Neither hurricane poses an immediate threat to land.

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