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Category '2' Hurricane 'Earl' Gradually Strengthening Just North Of The Leeward Islands While Still Category '1' Hurricane 'Danielle' Is Rapidly Losing It's Enthusiasm As It Races NE!
HURRICANE CENTRAL
Category '2' Hurricane 'Earl' continues to strengthen this morning while skirting just North of St. Martin and the British Virgin Islands. Tropical storm-force winds are impacting the Northern Leeward Islands with hurricane conditions possible over the next few hours in Anguilla. The British Virgin Islands could experience hurricane-force wind gusts this afternoon if H 'Earl' tracks even slightly South of the current forecast track. Maximum-sustained winds with H 'Earl' are estimated to be near 105 mph at this time, making 'Earl' a Category '2' storm. It should be noted that the strongest winds will likely remain offshore and to the North of Earl's path.
A 'Hurricane Warning' is now in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands with a 'Warning' still in effect for St. Martin, St. Barthelemy (St. Barts - English), Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius. A 'Tropical Storm Warning' and a 'Hurricane Watch' remains in effect for Puerto Rico.
A storm surge of 2-4 feet is expected across those locations within the hurricane warning area through this morning. By the afternoon, a storm surge of 1-3 feet can be expected over the Northern coast of Puerto Rico. Heavy rainfall will continue in the warning area with conditions slowly improving this afternoon. By the time all is said and done, 3-5 inches of rainfall is expected to have fallen. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Northeastern portions of Puerto Rico this evening with heavy rainfall developing there as well. There can be isolated rain amounts of 12 inches possible over the higher elevations of Puerto Rico.
Computer modeling is in fairly good agreement with regard to the eventual track and intensity of Hurricane 'Earl'. It is important to note, however, that the modeling has been biased to the right over the past few days...meaning that the forecasting models have persistently been too far Northeast with this system. With that in mind and the fact that the trend over the past few days has been to push the forecast track to the West, folks from North Carolina to coastal New England will have to keep a close eye on this storm. The current track clearly shows that this region is within the window of movement, so as early as Thursday it could be feeling the effects of H 'Earl' on the coast of the Tarheel State (with my apologies to the 'Tarheel', 'Wolfpack' and 'Blue Devil' fans).
Category '1' Hurricane 'Danielle' was quickly losing tropical characteristics over the North Atlantic ocean, and is not a threat to any land masses in the region. Even after Hurricane 'Danielle' becomes 'extra-tropical', the storm is expected to remain powerful as it swings towards Greenland later this week. And lastly, a strong disturbance in the central Atlantic between the Leeward Islands and Africa continues to be monitored for additional development. Some computer models suggests that this disturbance will become 'Fiona' and become a threat to the Greater Antilles and/or Florida. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with regard to this system, so I won't speculate on it's specifics right now.
If you'd like to have a 2010 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Tracking Chart, click on the link below to open it up and print it out. (You'll need Adobe Reader installed on your PC in order to view and print out this Hurricane Tracking Chart. Click on this link - Adobe Reader 9.3.4 - to install Adobe's free Reader software which is currently version 9.3.4. After you have downloaded and installed Adobe Reader 9.3.4, open up the program and click on 'Help' in it's Tool Bar to find the 'Check For Updates...' entry. Checking for updates here will help keep the latest version of this software installed on your computer.
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